They say one picture can tell thousand words and video shows thousand pictures. Then probably scouting breakdown on tape equals thousand reports in notebook. However sometimes I believe that (almost) thousand note based evaluations can be replaced with one simple comparison. Every school is different but at the end of the day it’s not the most complicated sport and coaches teach players likewise things. Prospects have the same height, body type and main assets. Those who are longer in scouting business have tremendous advantage of identifying similar players. They can take a look back to the past and predict future better for someone’s successor.
Adrian currently plays for the same team as Przemek did during his high school times. It’s called SMS PZKOSZ Wladyslawowo and belongs to the Polish Basketball Federation. Players have tremendous facility seaside in Olympic Sports Preparation Center. Basically everything was meant to create our version of INSEP or Australian AIS. However project is not perfect mostly due to unstability of the staff and recruiting expansion of Spanish academies where many talents from Poland resides. Some of kids choose not to join SMS, as they can start making money elsewhere before HS graduation. Moreover team participates in 2nd Division (which is in fact 3rd tier) and on some weekends semi-pro competition they face which prefers ultra slow paced game is just not appropriate to raise the prospects.
School they attended and being lefty are not the only things they have in common. Their physical profile is almost as similar as it gets. Recently this sameness was discussed in documentary about SMS PZKOSZ. Strength and conditioning coach compared tests results of both player and they are pretty much equal with slight advantage in favour of Bogucki. I don’t want to investigate the rumors about Karnowski eating habits and prefer to believe that he is just bad genetic case in terms of body development. On the other side I’ve been following Adrian since few years and he has been continuously making strides to get leaner and mobility already become his visible advantage over predecessor. He benefits from playing against small ball every week. He is often able to survive closeouts on the current level and keep intensity on the court for longer periods without getting subbed out.
What separates them is background. Karnowski father is a coach. Adrian didn’t have anyone to show him craft at the very young age as his homeplace doesn’t possess basketball traditions. That is the big reason why Przemek was more dominant at youth level and emerged quickly as a potential star. He was also feeding from the most talented Polish generation (1993) ever. His teammates were high in the rankings and participated in prestigious camps like Nike Hoop Summit (Michal Michalak & Mateusz Ponitka). They finished as a runner up at U17 FIBA World Championship in 2010. I’m affraid that mentioned success from Hamburg will remain the biggest achievement in Polish youth basketball history forever. Concerning Bogucki, he has never played in Division A tournament and was building his brand step by step. Finally after years of steady progress people started to compare them in a less shy manner.
Nextly let’s take a look at statistics. Karnowski spent only one year in SMS PZKOSZ so the sophomore (or maybe junior since HS takes only 3 years here) season is the most suitable for comparison since putting together stats from FIBA A & B may just cause distraction.
What may not be shown here is usage rate. Karnowski clearly had bigger offensive role but was not overly efficient as finisher. He mastered his lefty hook after going to the middle and clearing out space with his body. However facing equally strong players keeps being his nightmare. Obviously there is not many of them out there (still a lot on the high level where he tends to be though) but when they match up Przemek is almost useless on the court. He is not that much of a pass first type of guy and a lot of his remarkable passes come from reading double teams and defensive rotation in fabulous manner. Adrian also uses similar go-to type of play and also just like role model occasionally spins to the baseline from other side of low post. Both of them barely uses the right hand. Adrian toughness unfortunately tends to come and go. He is also less polished in this skill and often attacks from wrong angle and gets too deep under the rim.
Assists numbers are also highly intriguing. If we call Big Mamba gifted passer then what is the word to describe Bogucki in this regard? Of course it has a lot to do with how many plays Karn produced for himself but I believe this skill is 50/50. Przemek may just dish the ball with better authority at times. Adrian is close to elite post passer. He could fit spread offense or 4 out 1 in easily but needs to operate better on the short rolls as PnR man. Better mobility helps in this case as some heavy bigs are just simply focused too much on stopping their body in order not to take charge on help defense.
His other flaw is rim protection. Number of blocks doesn’t go side by side with motor coordination development which is somewhat disappointing. However in their case it’s hard to have as many rejections as tremendous athletes on their position. Often all the opponents since the very first play run pick and roll to death against them to test their conditioning, take away from the paint and get into foul trouble. This is huge reason why Gonzaga alumni didn’t make it to the NBA.
Rebounding is pretty much all even as they both can utilize their length and always look for the body to box out. Another analogy is shooting. Of course you can forget about stretching the court much in each case. While Przemek sporadically hits mid range jumper it is even more seldom in Adrian game. However the touch really improved a lot and looks promising during the warm up and practises. It may take some time to implement it to the game situation but it’s definitely not out of question if it happens.
The competition level could be a little better in Poland 6-7 years ago as there is more job openings now for domestic guys in higher divisions. For his senior year Przemek moved to Siarka Tarnobrzeg in Polish Top League on amateur contract to remain eligible for college and averaged ridiculously good 10.4 ppg. Adrian could continue in some of the best teams in 1st Division (2nd tier) on the same rules and most likely similar production level. He choose to stay and put in more individual work
So what future holds for Bogucki and can he really play on similar level to Big Karn? Gonzaga alumni started from more privileged position but had to face unexpected obstacles. Back injury kept him out of the court for 7 months and including medical redshirt he spent in NCAA 5 seasons. NBA teams hardly ever draft old seniors nowadays and 2-3 years before his chances to be selected would have been much higher. He become classic great college player who is just not a good fit for the best league in the world. Coming back to Adrian his ceiling doesn’t seem to be high enough for National Basketball Association. As for now he is not even first choice for elite teams like Zags (if he chooses to continue career in USA at all). However he can become strong mid major version of Karnowski with great career but on slightly smaller scale in the program where he is not surrounded by teammates who are drafted almost every year. What can help him is further body development in order to survive in spaced floor and simply to extend the longevity of his career. It is hard to imagine them playing together in national team except short stretches (especially regarding other frontcourt talents we have who fit modern basketball better – Maciej Bender and Olek Balcerowski). But in few years Adrian should seriously challenge “Big Mamba” for the spot and play on good European level apart from that.
